Guinness Pro 14: Round 12 Preview (Irish Provinces)

Local derby bragging rights on the line

The first blog posting after Christmas, hoping one and all had a good festive period and ate all round you. Best wishes for 2019! The Irish provinces cheer will be in short supply over the next couple of days as Connacht Rugby entertain Ulster Rugby at Sportsground. Munster Rugby who are under pressure to produce a vastly improved performance with ball in hand face down the current standard bearer Leinster Rugby. Expect fireworks!

What impact has the Leinster Rugby loss had on Connacht Rugby?

The key question going into this fixture. After such an excellent performance for three quarters in the RDS last weekend, it was a devastating last ten minutes for Connacht Rugby. Their much coveted victory in the RDS evaporated as Leinster Rugby’s attacking play coupled with passive game management and kicking from Connacht Rugby saw the game turn on its head.

The morale of the Connacht Rugby squad has to have taken a hit. The manner of the result was a bitter pill to swallow so Andy Friend and management team will have had their work cut out to get the side in the right mindset to win this contest.

Connacht Rugby named yet another strong team selection for this derby fixture. Four personnel changes sees Conor Carey and Shane Delahunt come into the front row. Quinn Roux partners the impressive Gavin Thornbury in the second row. Sean O’Brien comes into the back row.

The subs bench looks strong and with the Stephen Fitzgerald (on loan from Munster Rugby) expected to make a debut from the bench, there are options for Andy Friend to call upon if the need arises.

Ulster Rugby are coming to the Sportsground with revenge on their mind. It is an opportunity to right the wrongs after a disappointing home performance to the same opposition earlier in the season. Connacht Rugby dominated all facets of play and only for a Nick Timoney try at the death to make the 22-15 look closer than it was.

Dan McFarland comes back to his former club and names a good squad for the fixture. Alternations in the back line as Robert Baloucoune is suspended which means that McPhilips, Cave and Kernohan come in to freshen the side up. Timoney comes into an abrasive back row containing Coetzee and Murphy.

Verdict: Connacht Rugby

The Ulster Rugby starting lineup looks strong but question marks on the bench impact is prevalent here. Connacht Rugby’s performance depends on their mindset after that traumatic Leinster Rugby loss. If they are on point, expecting a good performance with Blade and Carty at half-back and with a strong bench should go home.

Ulster Rugby’s performance against an under-strength Munster Rugby last time out produced good moments with ball in hand but still were unable to pull clear. Addison vs. Aki looks the individual match-up to look out for; a national team trial selection.

Munster Rugby: Backs against the wall

The last few weeks have being a mixed bag for all associated with Munster Rugby. After the battle of Castres and then a loser point against Ulster Rugby, it has exposed massive issues with ball in hand. It is time to find form and confidence ahead of key European Cup action but with Leinster Rugby coming to Limerick, it will be difficult.

It will be interesting to see how Munster Rugby’s game plan with ball in hand evolves for this fixture. If Munster Rugby execute at the levels they have being in recent weeks, this could be a humiliation. There needs to be more variety in attacking lines. Ball carrier needs support runner options, something absent in recent weeks. Game management needs to improve; better kicking game required this week.

Munster Rugby make several changes to the side who lost to Ulster Rugby last time out. The cavalry is called upon as Stander, Murray, Beirne, Conway and Earls come into the ranks. Goggin and Scannell form yet another three quarter partnership; a troublesome area for the side given the state of flux. No Peter O’Mahony so Fineen Wycherley continues in the back row.

Leo Cullen / Stuart Lancaster wield the changes too. Key marquee names get game time in this local derby. Healy, Ryan, Furlong, Conan, van der Flier, Sexton, McGrath, Lowe, Ringrose, Larmour will look to impress. Larmour from full back could have a proverbial field day if Munster Rugby defensively are not at from minute one. Larmour was the marquee performer in this corresponding fixture last season.

I am struggling on how Munster Rugby can win this encounter. The defensive line speed and tackling have being solid but line out and attacking play has being inconsistent, two facets of play which Leinster Rugby excel in and with a quality back row, quick ruck ball from the hosts will be difficult to acheive.

A big game for Joey Carbery who needs to produce a measured performance. These are the games which Carbery was brought into the side for and after an indifferent performance against Castres on the road, he needs to stand up and deliver here.

Verdict: Leinster Rugby

Folks will argue that Munster Rugby have being on the end of some poor officiating crew decisions but the general game plan and execution in the side have being poor as well. Munster Rugby need to show a measured improvement and they will but Leinster Rugby hold all the aces here. Strong throughout the pitch and with impact from the bench with ball in hand, they will secure another victory on the road.