Heineken Champions Cup: Permutations Central

Exciting pool finale beckons next weekend!

The fifth round of Heineken Champions Cup is now in the books. Several sides’ ambitions to advance to the playoffs officially extinguished while others move onto next weekend and a weekend of destiny. Hawkeye Sidekick reviews the permutations which may unfold next weekend.

Current playoff picture (after Round 5)

Home Quarter Final Locks 

The debate on home quarter final berths was decisively answered this weekend. Saracens remain unbeaten in pool phase play. Their bonus point try win over Lyon on the road means that they are the number one seed right now with a home fixture against Glasgow Warriors scheduled next weekend.

Racing 92’s two point haul on the road to Ulster Rugby yesterday means that they hold the second seed. Racing 92 will fancy their chances of securing a win over a Scarlets side at home with precious little to play for; a potential bonus point up for the grabs.

Leinster Rugby made an emphatic statement, demolishing Toulouse minus several marquee first team starters. Wasps on the road will be interesting but the manner of the performance yesterday in the RDS means that the reigning champions should secure the third quarter final berth.

Any dramatic twists expected on the home quarter final berth?

We are down to the last home quarter final berth and it could be decided as soon as Friday night at 10pm. The equation is simple. If Edinburgh Rugby beat Montpellier, they secure the final home quarter final spot with a minimum of 23 points. A Montpellier game opens the home quarter final berth up for grabs on Saturday!

The side who would avail of this scenario is Munster Rugby but they are faced with a tricky encounter at Thomond Park as Exeter Chiefs still have a chance of pool progression. Exeter Chiefs’ mission is simple; beat Munster Rugby without allowing the Irish province any points. Tough task but no better than Exeter Chiefs to embrace and go for broke.

Munster Rugby impressive in their win over Gloucester Rugby on Friday night need to secure a bonus point try win to hit the twenty-two points mark. This may still not be good enough to secure the home quarter final berth but that is the aim right now. The Battle of Castres and the lack of officiating on that December night may come back to haunt Munster Rugby, Wayne Barnes and the EPCR organization. A home quarter final dashed.

Last Three Spots:

The pressure may build for those currently in spots six, seven and eight spots if Montpellier were to upset Edinburgh Rugby on the road. Given Montpellier’s road trip woes, it looks an arduous task but let us look at the impact if the French side did pull off the upset win.

Montpellier would jump to min (20 points) / max (21 points) and win Pool 5. Edinburgh Rugby are currently on nineteen points at present and you would expect them to add to that tally. They should advance to the quarter finals. Who may need be vulnerable if this scenario plays out?

Ulster Rugby travel to a Leicester Tigers who are devoid of confidence. It is the best opportunity for Ulster Rugby to secure a road trip win at Welford Road and with a Tigers squad looking at Gallagher Premiership survival, a bonus point try is potentially on the cards. Ulster Rugby should be safe.

Glasgow Warriors head to Saracens; arduous mission to secure any points from this fixture. Glasgow Warriors do have nineteen points in the bag; that might be enough to secure a ticket for the big dance but it all depends on Edinburgh / Montpellier on Friday.

Playoff Verdict:

Saracens (1) vs. Glasgow Warriors (8)

Racing 92 (2) vs. Toulouse (7)

Leinster Rugby (3) vs. Ulster Rugby (6)

Edinburgh Rugby (4) vs. Munster Rugby (5)